Let’s suppose we have an island populated by a million people. Last month
these million people received 30,000 tons of food–plenty of food. If this
month these million people receive another 30,000 tons of food, there’s no
conceivable reason why they’re going to be dropping like flies any more
than they were last month. It’s true that new babies will be born, but it’s
also true that old adults will die (and it should be noted that babies need
less food than adults). The same will be true if they receive another
30,000 tons of food next month, the month after that, and so on.
Now let’s suppose we have another island populated by a million people.
Last month these million people received only 10,000 tons of food–they’re
pretty hungry. If this month these million people receive another 10,000
tons of food, there’s no conceivable reason why they’re going to be
dropping like flies any more than they were last month. The same will be
true if they receive another 10,000 tons of food next month, the month
after that, and so on.
Now let’s suppose we have another island populated by a million people.
Last month these million people received only 5,000 tons of food–they’re
really hungry and some are dropping like flies. If this month these million
people receive another 5,000 tons of food, they’re going to go on being
hungry and some are going to be dropping like flies, just like last month.
The difference is, that, because infant mortality is likely to be high
under these circumstances and because live births are likely to be fewer
under these circumstances and because many children will not live to
maturity, this population is likely to decline some. Perhaps their
population will slip to 999,500 in this month. If they receive another
5,000 tons of food next month, the same thing is likely to happen. And so on.
DATE: 28 Jun 1998
UPDATE: 28 Jun 1998
ID: 238
